Predicting the Exoplanet Yield of the TESS Prime and Extended Missions through Years 1–7

Abstract The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) has discovered ∼5000 planets and planet candidates after 3.5 yr. With a planned second Extended Mission (EM2) spanning Years 5–7 on the horizon, now is time to revise predictions of TESS exoplanet yield. We present simulations number detectable around 9.4 million AFGKM stars in Candidate Target List v8.01 through 7 yr observations. Our take advantage improved models for photometric performance, temporal window functions, transit detection probability. estimate that 4719 ± 334 should be with Prime alone (Years 1–2), another 3707 209 across current 3–4). Based proposed pointing scenario EM2, we predict find 4093 180 planets, bringing total yield 12,519 678. provide our predicted yields as functions host star spectral type, radius, orbital period, follow-up feasibility, location relative habitable zone. As continues, new will progressively smaller, longer periods, orbit fainter stars. Half found EM2 smaller than 4 R ⊕ , over 1200 have periods 20 days, effectively doubling both kinds planets. small (<2 ) habitable-zone also double, 18 5. compare actual yield, finding good agreement.